Give Uncertainty a Chance: Leveraging Information Technologies to Deter Great Power War

On October 8, 2026, the Clements Center for National Security and the Strauss Center for International Security and Law will host “Give Uncertainty a Chance: Leveraging Information Technologies to Deter Great Power War,” with Caitlin Lee, Professor of Policy Analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. Join us at 12:15 – 1:30 pm in Sid Richardson Hall (SRH), Room 3.122, The LBJ School of Public Affairs.

Can uncertainty sometimes keep a crisis from becoming a war? Novel information  technologies—especially AI, drones, and cyber tools—are often framed as drivers of technological uncertainty that make conflict faster and easier to start. Dr. Lee considers another possibility: under the right conditions, states can leverage novel information technologies to manage uncertainty in support of strategic stability. Drawing on classic deterrence theory from Thomas Schelling and Herman Kahn, the talk will explore how emerging technologies create new forms of coercive leverage that blur the distinctions between deterrence by punishment and deterrence by denial, enabling “hybrid deterrence” strategies that contain elements of both. Using contemporary examples and a Taiwan Strait-focused thought experiment, Dr. Lee examines how technological change is reshaping coercive bargaining, strategic signaling, and crisis stability, and considers the implications for U.S. strategy in long-term strategic competition with China.

No registration required. Seating is first come, first served. Lunch will be served.

For more information, reach out to Ali Prince at ali.prince@austin.utexas.edu

Garage parking is available for a fee at the Manor Garage and the San Jacinto Garage. Parking will not be validated.

Speaker Biography

Caitlin Lee, Ph.D., is the director of Acquisition and Technology Policy in the National Security Research Division at RAND, where she oversees the RAND’s research for the Pentagon related to U.S.-China competition, emerging technology, defense industrial base issues, and acquisition. In her research role as a senior political scientist, she is currently leading projects focused on U.S. and Chinese defense mobilization trends and implications, and U.S. efforts to build resilience in the industrial base to deter great power war. She has testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, published on military innovation and drone warfare in the Journal of Strategic Studies, Air and Space Power Journal, and other academic and popular outlets, and has authored or co-authored RAND studies on a variety of aerospace, force design, and technology topics including RAND’s Thinking Through Protracted War with China. She previously founded the Mitchell Institute’s Center for UAV and Autonomy Studies and served as the senior aviation reporter for the America’s Bureau of Jane’s for over a decade. She teaches Planning U.S. Military Forces at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program and holds a Ph.D. in War Studies from King’s College London.